Effectuation

Overview

Effectuation, developed by Saras Sarasvathy from studying expert entrepreneurs, inverts traditional causal reasoning. Instead of starting with a goal and finding resources, effectuators start with available means and discover goals through action. This approach is more robust in highly uncertain environments where prediction is unreliable.

Core Principle: When you can't predict the future, don't try. Instead, focus on what you can control and let the future emerge from your actions.

When to Use

• Startup and new product development
• Innovation in uncertain domains
• When prediction is unreliable
• Entering new markets
• When resources are constrained
• Side projects and experiments
• Career pivots

Decision flow: