Pre-Mortem Analysis

Overview

The pre-mortem, developed by psychologist Gary Klein, uses "prospective hindsight": instead of asking "What could go wrong?", assume the plan HAS failed and reason backward through why. Stating failure as already-happened surfaces concrete risks that forward-looking risk assessment glosses over.

Core Principle: It's easier to explain a failure that "already happened" than to predict one. Use that asymmetry productively in a single reasoning pass.

When to Use

• Project kickoff (before work begins)
• Before committing to a major technical decision
• Sprint planning for high-risk work
• Before launch or major release
• When team seems overconfident
• After a plan is formed but before execution