Write the intel brief

The report is the only part of the investigation anyone else sees, so it is the only part that can be wrong in public. The failure that destroys credibility isn't a missed source — it's a sentence that reads as fact and is actually an inference. "The account is operated from Lisbon" versus "posting times cluster in UTC+0/+1, consistent with Iberian working hours." One survives cross- examination.

Step 1 — Sort every claim into observation, inference, or assessment

Three categories, never blurred, ideally visually distinct in the text.