Assumption Testing Skill

How this skill behaves (read first)

This is a generative skill, and "validate our idea" is a default trap. The instinctive move is to jump to a method — build an MVP, run a survey, ship an A/B test — or to test the idea ("do you like this?", which everyone says yes to) instead of the assumptions the idea depends on. The other failure is investment mismatch: writing code to answer a question a one-day test would settle, or betting the quarter on a hallway poll. So this skill gates:

1. Establish the decision and its stakes — what choice does this inform, and how reversible/expensive is it? That sets how much rigor is warranted.
2. Apply the always-true core — decompose into testable assumptions, prioritize the riskiest, phrase them falsifiably, set success criteria up front.
3. Choose the method deliberately — surface the fidelity/method decision with trade-offs; don't default to "build it and see."

Then it hands the plan to pm-assumption-rigor-audit to validate (and pm-okr-metric-validity-audit for the success metric). Applying every test type to every assumption is the failure mode — match one good method to each risky belief.

Step 0 — Establish context before planning tests

Ask if not known; state the assumption if proceeding without an answer: