Startup Trend Prediction

Systematic framework for analyzing historical trends to predict future opportunities. Look back 2-3 years to predict 1-2 years ahead.

Modern Best Practices (Jan 2026):

• Triangulate: require 3+ independent signals, including at least 1 primary source (standards, regulators, platform docs).
• Separate leading vs lagging indicators; don't overfit to social/media noise.
• Add hype-cycle defenses: falsification, base rates, and adoption constraints (distribution, budgets, compliance).
• Tie trends to a decision (enter / wait / avoid) with explicit assumptions and a review cadence.

Quick Reference: Building a Trend View (Dec 2025)

1) Define the Decision

• What decision are we supporting: enter / wait / avoid?
• Horizon: {{HORIZON}}
• Buyer and market: {{BUYER}} / {{MARKET}}

2) Collect Signals (Leading vs Lagging)