Scenario Planning Engine

Overview

Construct rigorous "what if" scenario models that quantify the range of outcomes for strategic CPG decisions. This skill combines deterministic scenario construction with Monte Carlo simulation concepts, sensitivity analysis, and decision-tree frameworks to produce probability-weighted projections and risk-adjusted recommendations.

When to Use

• Pricing strategy decisions (cost pass-through, promotional depth changes)
• Commodity cost volatility planning (raw materials, packaging, freight)
• Capacity and supply chain investment decisions
• M&A scenario modeling (acquisition targets, integration assumptions)
• Market disruption preparedness (competitive entry, regulation changes)
• Annual operating plan stress testing
• Capital allocation decisions across brands/channels

Required Inputs