estimation
Estimation
Estimate to expose uncertainty and trade-offs, not to pretend the future is certain.
Context
Estimation converts a task list into a planning signal the team can actually use. Good estimates make assumptions explicit, separate known work from uncertainty, and prevent schedules from quietly becoming fiction.
In Prodcraft, estimation follows task breakdown and should be informed by identified risks. The goal is calibrated planning, not false precision.
Inputs
- task-list -- The reviewed implementation slices to size.
- risk-register -- Known delivery, integration, and scope risks that should affect confidence or contingency.
Process
Step 1: Normalize the Unit of Estimation
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Use when reviewed requirements or specifications are ready and the team must decide high-level architecture, component boundaries, integration seams, or brownfield coexistence strategy before API design, technology selection, or task planning.
6ci-cd
Use when a reviewed implementation slice needs an automated build, test, and deployment pipeline, especially when brownfield rollback, release-boundary checks, contract/integration gates, and staged delivery must be explicit before shipping.
6intake
The mandatory gateway for all new engineering work. Triage and route new products, apps, features, migrations, tech-debt, or any 'not sure where to start' request to the correct lifecycle path. Use before starting design or implementation. Do not use for ongoing tasks, specific debugging, or PR reviews.
6feature-development
Use when a reviewed task slice has tests or acceptance targets and the team must turn it into a small, mergeable implementation increment without expanding scope, breaking contracts, or hiding release-boundary risk.
6monitoring-observability
Use when a live service or newly delivered release needs actionable telemetry, dashboards, and alerts that expose real user-impactful boundaries, especially when brownfield coexistence rules, unsupported-flow safety, rollback health, or queue/backfill behavior must be visible before incidents escalate.
6incident-response
Use when a live production issue needs coordinated containment, severity triage, stakeholder communication, and evidence capture, especially when a recent release, brownfield coexistence rules, rollback decisions, or unresolved contract boundaries must be handled before root-cause work.
6