construct-scenario

Purpose

Construct scenarios across key uncertainties with explicit assumptions and plausibility, including baseline, counterfactual, and extreme-but-plausible modes.

Input contract

required: [context, uncertainty_set, scenario_mode]
optional: [drivers, dependency_model, probability_method, recovery_assumptions]
constraints: [scenario assumptions and distinguishing observables must be explicit]

Procedure

1. Select uncertainty axes and record their state space.
2. Generate distinct combinations appropriate to the mode.
3. Propagate interactions, breaking points, failure cascades, and recovery assumptions where applicable.
4. Attach plausibility rationale, distinguishing observables, and outcome implications.