Counterfactual Reasoning

Reason about what would happen if a variable were different. "If X had not occurred, would Y still have happened?" This is the gold standard for causal identification.

Available SOPs

• causal-chain-query — trace causal paths to identify dependencies
• contradiction-flagging — flag when counterfactual contradicts observed evidence
• confidence-scoring — assess confidence in counterfactual conclusions

Guiding Principles

• Minimal change. Counterfactuals should change only the target variable, holding all else constant.
• Mechanism required. A counterfactual without a mechanism is speculation, not reasoning.
• Multiple paths. If Y can be caused by X through multiple paths, removing X may not remove Y.
• Temporal ordering. Causes precede effects. Counterfactuals that violate temporal order are invalid.

Minimum Yield