evaluate-optionality

Purpose

Evaluate staging, deferral, reversible commitment, and information-gathering options under uncertainty.

Input contract

required: [decision_options, uncertainty_register, time_horizon, consequence_model]
optional: [irreversibility_costs, information_actions, trigger_conditions]
constraints: [each option states timing, reversibility, information gained, and consequence range]

Procedure

1. Represent immediate, deferred, staged, and information-gathering actions on a common timeline.
2. Estimate each action's reversible value, delay cost, information gain, and downside exposure.
3. Identify trigger conditions that would justify advancing, pausing, or abandoning each staged option.
4. Emit an option-value comparison and the conditions under which deferral is preferable to commitment.

Output contract

produces: [option_value_table, timing_policy, trigger_conditions, uncertainty_notes]
delta_fields: [findings, evidence_updates, uncertainties, decisions, recommended_jumps]