quantify-information-value

Purpose

Estimate the value of resolving an uncertainty to prioritize evidence or experiments.

Input contract

required: [decision_problem, uncertain_variables, decision_options]
optional: [probability_model, utility_model, evidence_costs]
constraints: [value estimate must state decision consequences and uncertainty assumptions]

Procedure

1. Define current uncertainty and decision consequences.
2. Estimate value under perfect or sample information, or state a qualitative equivalent.
3. Compare information value with acquisition or experiment cost.
4. Rank unknowns for follow-up.

Output contract

produces: [information_value_estimates, priority_ranking, acquisition_recommendations]
delta_fields: [findings, uncertainties, decisions, recommended_jumps]