test-risky-prediction

Purpose

Derive a risky prediction uniquely or strongly implied by an explanation and test it against evidence.

Input contract

required: [explanation, alternatives, available_evidence]
optional: [prospective_predictions, test_conditions]
constraints: [prediction must distinguish the explanation from at least one alternative]

Procedure

1. Derive prediction and its distinguishing conditions.
2. Check whether it was prospective or post-hoc.
3. Compare evidence and classify support, failure, or accommodation.

Output contract

produces: [risky_prediction, distinction_test, evidence_comparison, accommodation_assessment]
delta_fields: [findings, evidence_updates, uncertainties, decisions]

Quality gates