/assumption-map

Map and prioritize assumptions underlying a product decision, strategy, or bet.

When to Use

• Before committing resources to a new initiative (Phase 2-3 transition)
• When a strategic bet has implicit assumptions that need surfacing
• After /strategic-bet to make assumptions explicit and testable
• During Phase 1 discovery to challenge founding hypotheses

Vision to Value Phase

Phase 1: Strategic Foundation (also used at Phase 2-3 boundary)

Gotchas

• Assumptions must be falsifiable — 'the market will grow' is too vague, 'TAM will exceed $1B by 2027 (source: X)' is testable
• High-risk assumptions (high impact, low certainty) must have validation plans