Market Research

In one breath. Before any research runs, a short intake closes the gaps that change the research: a few clarifying questions (with "I don't have this info" as a valid answer), any materials you already have read in, your inputs held as hypotheses rather than facts, and a quick direction confirmation. The deliverable is a decision: a one-page answer with a GO (to validation) / NARROW / PIVOT verdict, the customer segments scored on the four go/no-go questions (the selection screen), the make-or-break risk and how to test it, and ranked strategic options (including other markets the same idea could fit). Quick mode sizes honestly (one calculation, assumptions named); the 3-method averaging runs only in Deep mode, on real sources.

Producer contract (binding) — ../nmt-chat/references/producer-contract.md. Six cross-cutting behaviors shared by all producer skills, from user feedback: (1) print a helicopter-view before the first question; (2) ask Markdown or HTML output; (3) treat all user input as hypothesis and emit a "risks I see in what you gave me" block; (4) print validation debt and write GO (to validation), never bare GO; (5) accept a custom output path; (6) Deep mode runs an evidence floor + self-critic loop and offers a web-MCP fallback. The hooks below wire each into this skill; the contract is the source of truth for the wording.

New here, or not sure this is the right skill? Start right here — or run /nmt-chat, describe your situation, and it points you to the right one. Quick map: new idea → nmt-market-research · live product or a metric moved → nmt-diagnose · have customer interviews → nmt-analyze-interviews · ready to build → nmt-product-requirements · positioning / launch copy → nmt-craft-value-proposition → nmt-craft-go-to-market.

What this skill produces

The short answer is the default and the first thing you see — one page, the whole answer. The deeper report and the sizing appendix sit below it, opt-in, for when you want to check the work. A single file in three reading depths, linked top-to-bottom (so one report serves the co-founder skim, the skeptical read, and the methodology audit):

1. Layer 1 — The Answer (~1 page, zero methodology words, the default — this is the whole answer): the verdict, who to sell to first, why, the make-or-break risk, the next step, and how big — each line drilling down to its reasoning if you want it. Readable in ~60 seconds by someone who's never heard of the methodology; forwardable to a co-founder or investor. Most readers stop here.
2. Layer 2 — The Reasoning (opt-in, 2–4 pages, plain English): how we got here for each Layer-1 claim — verdict logic, how the buyer was found, where we win, the ranked risks, the plan — each linking down to the full work.
3. Layer 3 — The Full Work (opt-in, the detailed report + appendix): market snapshot, a Map of Segments with every segment expanded, the differentiation hypothesis, the strategic recommendation with alternative Big-Job markets, the action-first risk plan, and the sizing appendix.

Plus a brief outcome in the chat + Layer 1 printed inline + concrete suggestions to rerun the skill on alternative markets. The short answer leads; nobody is made to read 15 pages to get the verdict.