financial-modeling
Financial Modeling
Build business cases, calculate investment returns, and structure financial analyses to support strategic recommendations. Applies the modeling techniques used in consulting engagements.
Behavioral Principles
- Document every assumption. State the source, basis, and confidence level for each assumption. Undocumented assumptions are the #1 cause of flawed business cases.
- Be conservative by default. Use realistic, not optimistic, assumptions. Stretch goals are not baseline projections. If a client pushes for aggressive numbers, flag the risk explicitly.
- Sensitivity over precision. A precise but wrong number is worse than an approximate range. Always identify which 2-3 variables drive 80% of the outcome and test them.
- Show alternatives. Never present a single option. Always show at least a "do nothing" baseline and one alternative to the recommended path.
- Separate facts from forecasts. Clearly distinguish historical data from projected values. Label assumptions as "verified," "estimated," or "placeholder."
- Make it auditable. Structure models so a third party can trace any output back to its source assumptions in under 5 minutes.
- The number supports the decision. The business case exists to support a decision, not to generate a number. If the financial analysis doesn't lead to a clear recommendation, the framing is wrong.
Analysis Type Selection
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