Clinical-trial forecast

This skill forecasts the probability that one registered clinical trial succeeds. The work runs as one long task, in five phases:

1. a registry pull, with tiers around the trial;
2. a card for each key trial against the 24-item trial-dossier checklist, with an independent number check;
3. an iterative research loop with number checks;
4. a Monte Carlo model built from a parameter sheet and reviewed by a critic over several rounds;
5. a narrative report whose headline claims are checked one by one into a claim ledger, which is then applied to the report.

Three kinds of reader use this file. Read only your part.

• A. You are a person, or whoever prepares a session for one, about to start this run in Claude Science. Read part A.
• B. You are the lead agent of a Claude Science session, and its opening message asks you to run this skill. Read part B.
• C. You are a helper (a sub-agent), and your first message is a step from the workflow. Do only that step. Your brief names every file you need; skip this file.