digital-oracle

Markets are efficient. Price contains all public information. Reading price = reading market consensus.

Methodology

Answer questions using only market trading data — no news, opinions, or statistical reports as causal evidence. If something is true, some market has already priced it in.

Five iron rules:

1. Trading data only — prices, volume, open interest, spreads, premiums. Never cite analyst opinions.
2. Explicit reasoning from price to judgment — explain clearly "why this price answers this question."
3. Multi-signal cross-validation — never conclude from a single signal. At least 3 independent dimensions.
4. Label the time horizon of each signal — options price 3 months, equipment orders price 3 years — don't mix them in the same vote.
5. Structured output — the final report must follow the Step 5 template: layered signal tables → contradiction analysis → probability scenarios → signal consistency assessment. Do not substitute prose for structured reporting.

Workflow

Step 1: Understand the question