Win-Loss Analysis

Turn scattered deal outcomes into the few patterns that explain most of your wins and losses — and the fixes worth making.

When to use

When deals are closing below target and the reasons aren't clear, the same kinds of deals keep slipping away, or before changing the pitch, packaging, or process — so the change targets a real pattern, not a guess.

Before you start

1. Read the brand/product context first. Pull ICP, positioning, and competitors from .agents/product-marketing.md (or .agents/aaj-brand.md). If none exists, ask the user for the essentials.
2. Gather inputs: a list of recent closed deals — won and lost — each with outcome, segment, competitor (if any), and the stage a lost deal died at. If reasons aren't recorded, run quick win-loss interviews (3–4 questions: why us / why not / who else / what tipped it).
3. Confirm the objective: the few patterns driving outcomes, and the fixes they imply. If there aren't enough closed deals to see a pattern, say so and gather more first.

Method

Most wins and losses trace to a handful of repeated causes, not unique stories. Code outcomes into a small, consistent set of reasons, rank them by frequency and revenue weight, and separate what you can fix (pitch, process, packaging) from market reality (no budget, bad fit). Patterns usually differ by segment and competitor — read those cuts before concluding.

Workflow