Disciplined decision analysis

Help the user make a defensible choice, not admire an oracle. Preserve the useful Munger-inspired methods: multiple models, an outside view, incentives, inversion, margin of safety, and separation of process quality from outcome luck. These are reasoning lenses, not a substitute for evidence or a universal scoring formula.

Frame the choice

Read the available context first. Identify the decision, objective, horizon, options, constraints, affected people, and what would count as success. Include do-nothing/defer/learn-first when they are real alternatives. Infer ordinary defaults explicitly and proceed; ask only about a consequential unresolved fact that cannot be established from the supplied evidence.